We will continue to ignore political and economic forecasts, which are an expensive distraction for many investors and businessmen.
Macro forecasts
I don’t invest a dime based on macro forecasts.
The basic game
Since the basic game is so favorable, Charlie and I believe it’s a terrible mistake to try to dance in and out of it based upon the turn of tarot cards, the predictions of “experts”, or the ebb and flow of business activity. The risks of being out of the game are huge compared to the risks of being in it.
Mr. Market
Mr. Market is kind of a drunken psycho. Some days he gets very enthused, some days he gets very depressed. And when he get really enthused you sell to him, and if he gets depressed, you buy from him. There’s no moral taint attached to that.
Predict the market
I never try to predict the market.
History
What we learn from history is that people don’t learn from history.
Forecasts
Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster ; they tell you nothing about the future.
Comfort
In some corner of the world they are probably still holding regular meetings of the Flat Earth Society. We derive no comfort because important people, vocal people, or great numbers of people agree with us. Nor do we derive comfort if they don’t.
Geeks
Investors should be skeptical of history-based models. Constructed by a nerdy-sounding priesthood using esoteric terms such as beta, gamma, sigma and the like, these models tend to look impressive. Too often, though, investors forget to examine the assumptions behind the models. Beware of geeks bearing formulas.
Building arks
Predicting rain doesn’t count. Building arks does.